Russian roulette

May 13, 2008 at 8:42 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Let’s say I were to give you a gun with 6 chambers. 5 chambers gives you, say, a million dollars and one chamber has a silver bullet. Now, no rational person would try to make money playing this game. The odds are that, eventually, you will get killed doing it. It’s stupid.

Now let’s say that same gun had 100 holsters with a similar proposition: chances are you’ll make a lot of money, but there’s a 1% chance that under the right conditions, you die. And let’s say instead of every minute, you do it every so often – over a course of years or even decades. Eventually, statistically, lightening will strike, a “perfect storm” will ensue, and they’ll lose their investment and go broke.

Banks do this, and this is what scares me now. . .

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