Stever's blog

“I was wrong”

May 28, 2025 at 2:13 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Often times I like to check my batting average when I make bold predictions, so I am going to do that here. This keeps me in check. Turns out I was wrong way more that I thought. And naively so. It’s important to realize this when planning for the future.

“The Ukraine war will cause massive food shortages”
Wrong (-1). I figured since Ukraine provided such a high amount of grains, the world market would feel the impact of this. Guess I was wrong.

“The Ukraine war is a bad idea”
Correct – but for the wrong reasons, so I give myself a “tie” (0). The ukraine war did NOT disrupt the world’s food supply or lead to nuclear war. But the war did turn into a quagmire. And it had lots of human and financial costs with no results to show for it. Plus a lot of our “allies” sided, and aligned, with Russia. And there were energy supply and economic consequences to our side. In retrotspect, our resources could have been better spent elsewhere.

“Covid-19 is the flu and everyone is over-reacting”
Spot on. Major (+1) for me. I was literally the only one not afraid of this, and I am quite frankly shocked by this.

“The covid vaccine is more trouble than it’s worth”
Again, spot on (+1). Literally everyone who I know who got the vaccine got covid anyway. And it didn’t do anything to block tranmission, apparently. And none of my unvaccinated friends experienced a “winter of severe illness and death!”. The media is completely divorced from reality.

“Everyone will realize their mistake and revolt”
Wrong. (-1). Everyone I know double down on their opinion that covid was actually dangerous. It seems most people’s thinking are locked in an unfortunate pattern. There is no sense “I was wrong”, or “maybe I should correct myself”. This is what I actually said at the time here. Boy, was I dumb.

“US will go into hyperinflation anywhere from 2022-2024”
Wrong (-1). We had inflation, but not nearly hyper-inflation. However, I still stand by what I’ve said. Inflation will compound and the US will have hyperinflation soon. The value of US bonds will go to zero. Here is my blog article regarding it. In retrospect, my prediction on both inflation and US bonds were way off the mark.

“Occupy Wall Street is a positive movement and I’m proud to be part of it”
Wrong (-1), and embarassingly so. Here’s what I said about it at the time.

This one I feel particularly embarassed about, because BLM made me look at myself and see how much of an ass I was at the time. I sincerely believe that if 80% of these people had a sales job, they’d do the same damn thing. The “group” is overconfident and you can’t correct them. I fell for this myself, so I vow to never repeat this mistake again.

In retrospect
-1 +0 +1 +1 -1 -1 -1
My aggrate prediction score is -2, so i guess I’m wrong a lot more than I think

Ok, my current future predictions, all within 5 years (2030):

• huge crash on wall street – at cataclymstic levels
• US bonds will go to zero in 5 years
• hyperinflation in 5 years